AMHERST, Mass. (MyFoxBoston.com) -- A poll released Thursday by the University of Massachusetts Amherst gives Democratic U.S. Rep. Ed Markey an 11-point lead over his Republican opponent Gabriel Gomez.
Markey leads Gomez 51-percent to 40-percent among likely voters and 47-percent to 37-percent among registered voters, according to the UMass poll.
Poll creators see an opportunity for Gomez to close the gap among the 6-percent of likely voters who say they are undecided.
The congressman maintains a whopping 19-point lead among women, but only a 3-percent lead among men. Gomez, however, is expected to carry the majority of independent voters with 50 percent to Markey's 33 percent.
Gomez is behind by 16 percent among those who describe themselves as moderate voters.
The UMass poll's director claims there appears to be little chance that Gomez can re-create the surprise of Scott Brown's 2010 victory over Martha Coakley. Pollsters even note only 75 percent of those who supported Scott Brown in 2010 plan to support Gomez.
"It is always difficult to predict turnout in a special election like this one, but no matter what assumptions we make about who is likely to vote, Markey holds a consistent lead in our poll," said Brian Schaffner, chair of the political science department.
Voters will cast their ballots in the special election for U.S. Senate on June 25.